Lagos warns residents of possible flooding, excess rainfall in 2026

The Ministry of Environment and Water Resources has alerted residents of possible flooding and strong winds as rainy season begins, urging preparedness and compliance with environmental regulations.

The Commissioner for Environment, Mr Tokunbo Wahab, made this known in a news conference with journalists at the Ministry of the Environment in Lagos.

Wahab also gave the warming on Seasonal Climate Predictions and its socio-economic implications for the state.

He said the predictions were based on the forecasts released on Feb. 10, by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET), which indicated expected rainfall patterns, temperature changes, and other weather parameters across the country.

According to him, the state conducts the briefing annually as part of efforts to inform residents and prepare them for the expected impact of the rainy season and related weather events.

The commissioner said the 2026 prediction was based on a projected weak La Nina and a neutral phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which could influence rainfall patterns.

A weak La Niña (cold phase) features slightly cooler-than-normal pacific waters, causing minor shifts in rainfall and weaker global impacts, such as reduced Atlantic hurricane activity.

The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) also reports that an ENSO-neutral phase is the normal state with no extreme, favouring typical seasonal weather patterns.

Wahab said the forecast indicated an early to normal onset of the rainy season, normal to late cessation, and normal to above-normal rainfall across the state.

He added that temperatures were expected to be above normal between March and May.

“Year 2026 is predicted to start with a weak La Nina in January, while the neutral phase of ENSO is expected to persist within the first six to eight months of the year.

“This suggests an early onset of the rainy season, longer-than-normal duration, and delayed end of the rainy season in Lagos.

“As a result, above normal rainfall amounts are anticipated in the first peak of the rainy season, while normal rainfall amounts are expected in the second peak of the rainy season.

“The rainy season is expected to start as early as the last week of March, while the end of season is expected in the first week of December. Also, the average annual rainfall amount predicted is 1650 and 3030mm,” he said.

The commissioner said rainfall was expected to begin on March 31 in Ikeja with a cessation date of December 2 and an estimated annual rainfall of 1,932 mm.

He added that Badagry was projected to experience rainfall from March 28 to December 3, with an annual rainfall of about 2,010 mm.

He said Ikorodu was expected to record rainfall from March 31 to December 2 with about 1,935 mm, while Lagos Island was projected to have rainfall from March 30 to December 2 with about 1,968mm.

He added that Epe was expected to record rainfall from March 29 to December 3, with an annual rainfall of about 1,984 mm.

According to him, the average rainfall expected across the state’s 20 Local Government Areas is about 1,965 mm.

Wahab said Lagos and neighbouring Ogun state were likely to experience above-normal rainfall.

He warned that heavy rainfall could lead to flooding in some parts of the state, while strong winds at the onset and end of the rainy season could pose risks to lives and property.

He noted that thunderstorms and heavy rains might disrupt commercial activities and cause flight delays.

The commissioner said the state government had strengthened its monitoring system through its network of weather and river gauge stations to improve preparedness for weather and flood-related incidents.

He added that the ministry was collaborating with NiMet on seasonal climate predictions to provide early warning tools for farmers, planners, and businesses likely to be affected by rainfall patterns.

Wahab said the state had intensified flood control measures, including year-round drainage maintenance and sustainable solid waste management.

He said the government was also maintaining strong collaboration with the Ogun-Oshun River Basin Development Authority to regulate water release from the Oyan Dam in order to prevent flooding along downstream sections of the Ogun river.

According to him, low-lying communities such as Agiliti, Agboyi, Itowolo, and Ajegunle are closely monitored due to the possibility of flooding from the Ogun river.

Wahab also said the Lagos State Signage and Advertisement Agency had been placed on alert to ensure compliance with safety regulations for billboards and telecommunications masts in view of expected strong winds.

He added that emergency response and traffic management agencies had been placed on high alert to reduce the impact of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

The commissioner appealed to residents to desist from indiscriminate dumping of refuse and construction on drainage channels, noting that such practices contribute significantly to flooding.

He urged residents living along flood plains in areas such as Owode, Iwaya, Makoko, Badia, Ijora, Isaalu, Pota, and Shibiri to remain vigilant and be prepared to relocate to safer areas if necessary.

Wahab also urged motorists to observe speed limits during the rainy season to avoid accidents.

He also appealed to residents to regularly clear drains around their homes to ensure the free flow of storm water and support government efforts to prevent flooding across the state.(N