Nigeria’s economy growing, inflation declining – Finance minister

Oyedele,​‌‌‍​‍⁠⁠‍‌‌⁠⁠​‌⁠‌‌​ the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, disclosed this while briefing State House correspondents after Wednesday’s Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting in Abuja.

He attributed the improvement to economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu’s administration.

The minister said Nigeria’s economic growth rate increased from 2.74 per cent in May 2023, when the reforms began, to 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026.

He added that economic growth in US dollar terms reached 17 per cent in the first half of 2026, placing Nigeria among the leading contributors to global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

Oyedele said inflation declined to 14.63 per cent in September from 20.98 per cent a year earlier, following a peak of approximately 34 per cent.

He said the removal of petrol subsidies and foreign exchange market adjustments helped avert a deeper economic crisis.

According to him, subsidy removal in 2023 addressed a longstanding structural problem that had persisted for about five decades, with its benefits beginning to accrue.

Oyedele added that the naira had stabilised, trading between N1,330 and N1,350 to the dollar.

On public finance, he said Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio rose from about seven per cent in 2023 to approximately 12.5 per cent at the end of 2025.

He added that the debt-service-to-revenue ratio declined from nearly 100 per cent to below 60 per cent.

The minister said Federation Account allocations increased by 44 per cent between 2024 and 2025, with the government projecting a further increase of at least 50 per cent in 2026.

He maintained that revenue growth remained significant even after accounting for inflation.

On the social impact of the reforms, Oyedele said more than N372.6 billion had been disbursed to over 1.5 million students through the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND).

He added that more than 10 million households had received cash transfers worth over N600 billion, with the government targeting at least 15 million households.

According to him, more than 800,000 micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) had benefited from subsidised single-digit interest loans.

He said low-income earners receiving up to N100,000 monthly were exempted from personal income tax under the tax reforms.

Oyedele added that eligible small businesses with annual turnover not exceeding N100 million were exempted from corporate income tax, Value Added Tax (VAT) and withholding tax, subject to applicable provisions.

He further disclosed that Nigeria’s capital market had expanded from about N30 trillion to more than N160 trillion in three years.

The minister attributed improved international investor confidence to the reforms, citing credit-rating upgrades and positive outlooks from major rating agencies.

On decisions reached at the FEC meeting, Oyedele said the council approved projects targeting electricity supply, transportation, food security and border security.

He listed a 155.9-million-euro credit facility from Deutsche Bank and other lenders to upgrade five electricity substations under the Presidential Power Initiative.

He said the project would improve electricity reliability for households and businesses while helping to reduce energy costs.

The council also considered a $970 million syndicated term loan involving Standard Chartered and the Africa Finance Corporation for rolling stock on the Kano–Maradi railway line.

Oyedele said the investment would improve freight transportation, promote regional trade and reduce logistics costs.

He also announced approvals for non-intrusive inspection scanners, technical support, repairs and maintenance for the Nigeria Customs Service.

According to him, the investments will accelerate cargo clearance and strengthen the detection of contraband and dangerous weapons.

Addressing the external borrowing plan submitted to the National Assembly, Oyedele said its total value was $21.7 billion after converting the euro-denominated component into dollars.

He stressed that the figure represented a borrowing plan, not money already borrowed, adding that the government might not draw down the entire amount.

Oyedele said the projects had an average implementation period of five years and covered transportation, defence, security, health, agriculture, energy, digital infrastructure, finance, MSMEs, social protection, the environment and education.

He said approximately $10.6 billion was earmarked for transportation infrastructure, including the Sokoto–Badagry and Lagos–Calabar highways and the Kano–Kaduna metro rail project.

The minister said about $7.9 billion would come from multilateral and bilateral development partners.

He cited a $5 billion World Bank component, with concessional interest rates averaging 2.1 per cent.

He added that social-sector projects would largely receive concessional financing at average interest rates of about two per cent, while commercial components had an indicative average rate of 7.8 per cent.

The minister said approximately $4.8 billion was intended for subnational governments, the Federal Capital Territory, government agencies and development finance institutions.

He argued that borrowing for productive investments should be assessed by the value of assets and economic benefits created, rather than the amount borrowed alone.

On food security, Oyedele said the Federal Government was adopting a coordinated national approach involving federal, state and local governments.

He said the immediate strategy was to stabilise or reduce prices of essential food items, including rice, yam, beans and maize, in the coming months.

He explained that the government would assess domestic food production and consumption to identify supply gaps and guide import decisions without discouraging local farmers.

The minister said the National Economic Council’s 90-day action plan would support coordinated implementation across the three tiers of government.

He added that the FEC had endorsed the council’s five priority programmes, the national economic policy framework and the national development plan.

Oyedele said the administration remained committed to fiscal discipline, expanding investment and creating decent jobs to improve Nigerians’ living standards.